China's post-COVID economic outlook challenges the comparisons to Japan's economic slowdown experience. Resembling 1990s South Korea, China has substantial growth potential through structural shifts toward a consumption-driven economy and inter-governmental reforms for sustained high-quality growth.

As China grapples with enormous challenges – including an imploding property sector, unfavorable demographics, and slowing growth – doubts about the future of the world’s largest growth engine are intensifying. Add to that China’s geopolitical rise, together with deepening tensions with the United States, and the need to understand China’s political economy is becoming more urgent than ever.

During her recent visit to Beijing, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized her Chinese counterparts, arguing that China’s government subsidies have led to overcapacity in crucial sectors like alternative energy and electric vehicles (EVs). This, she contended, provides Chinese companies with unfair cost advantages that enable them to outcompete American firms. But while Yellen was right to point out China’s overcapacity problem, her assertion that government subsidies are the root cause was misplaced.

The Government Work Report has defined China’s policy goals and priorities for 2024. High-quality economic and social development beckons.

China's focus on electric vehicles (EVs) over internal combustion engine cars - the "Great Leapfrogging Forward” - has significantly reshaped the global industrial landscape to China's benefit. Recognizing and accurately assessing China's capabilities instead of propagating unfounded narratives about its imminent decline constitutes the foundational first step in competing effectively with China.

IntroductionFor 2023, the Chinese Government’s target growth rate was 5%. The actual growth rate achieved was 5.2%. This must be considered a success, g

Defining the relationship between China and the United States primarily as one of competition — as the U.S. is doing — is dangerous and not advisable. Competition can easily turn into conflict. The long-term U.S. posture on this will depend upon the outcome of the presidential election.

Contrary to recent forecasts by various international organizations, the author believes that China’s economy in 2024 will buck the trend and trace a new curve. Growth will reach upward toward 5 percent and beyond in 2025 as the country shakes off the lingering impact of COVID-19 and returns to an appropriate range.

The only way to ensure more robust and sustainable growth is creating new patterns and new productive forces. Following the San Francisco Vision, the governments and business communities of both China and the United States should lose no time getting on board.

While trying to protect domestic industries through government intervention, technological blockades and financial subsidies, Washington has lashed out at China’s “non-market policies,” which it claims are bad for domestic employment. Such rhetoric doesn’t help America’s international reputation.